ANALYSIS AND MEASUREMENT THE CONCURRENT FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CYCLE IN THE IRAQI ECONOMY FOR THE PERIOD 1990-2018

Abstract

The research aims to verify the presence of correlation between the financial cycle and the economic cycle in the Iraqi economy. During the research period, the Iraqi economy witnessed a crisis cycle due to the permanent deviations in the state budget and the occurrence of sustainable deficits during the period of the economic blockade with the coincidence of an inflationary economic cycle due to the cheap money policy and the occurrence of Negative supply shocks due to the blockade and the madly high general level of prices, in addition to the weak financial planning of the state budget during the post-economic blockade and the entry of the economy into a stagnant economic cycle due to security and political instability, low levels of private investment, the control of ISIS gangs over a third of Iraq and the pessimistic expectations of individuals. On the government's inability to pay salaries, wages and compensation for workers, as well as the state’s adoption of classic financial solutions in accordance with discretionary, interventionist financial policies aimed at maximizing the level of public revenue and public spending pressure in a circumstance where the Iraqi economy suffers from an economic stagnation where unemployment levels rise and the level of GDP is low due to a decline World oil prices, which generated this solutions classic financial deepening of the economic recession cycle we are still living its effects until the moments of writing the paper